Just Waiting Around…. Nothing hugely threatening for the next few days though the pattern is generally favorable. Something could happen any day. Really.
Overview After a big, stormy weekend on the west coast, Monday saw gradually clearing weather and strong NW winds as a 1032-mb ridge of high pressure started to take over the eastern North Pacific. The weather will continue to improve through mid-week, although strong Northwesterly winds will hamper conditions with dropping WNW swell through Tuesday.
By Wednesday and into the end of the week, the wind is light with potential for offshore conditions by late in the week. Southern California spots see gradually fading surf through the week (with some very steep NW pulses possible for Friday and into Saturday, but not of XXL caliber).
NorCal spots fade through mid-week, with some stronger NW swells budding by Thursday and late in the weekend. Pacific Northwest conditions don’t look quite as good. While the aforementioned ridge of high pressure builds into the west coast, a 988-mb low will concurrently set up shop high in the Gulf of Alaska.
The interaction between the high and the low will create a strong WNW wind gradient aimed at the Pacific Northwest. This sets up solid swell but windy conditions on Tuesday. As the ridge of high pressure begins to retreat southward, this will allow the storm track to drop further south out of the Gulf of Alaska.
A strong cyclone will build offshore through the day on Wednesday, with solid surf and stormy weather expected for Wednesday and Thursday. It looks like more solid surf and weather will roll in for the weekend. The same ridge of high pressure that is creating better weather and strong NW winds for the west coast this week made for strong trade winds in Hawaii, which blew up a building trade swell. The strong trade winds are shifting more easterly (which should help a bit with conditions) and continue through mid-week, before slacking a touch toward the end of the week.
An extra-tropical low started brewing Sunday afternoon and will intensify over the next couple of days while retrograding back toward the Kamchatka Peninsula. The extra tropical low will re-develop into a large complex low near the Bering Sea toward the end of the week. This should set up surf for most of the Pacific breaks, but nothing that looks like it will be of XXL size at this point.
CR: The surf will be large and stormy for Tuesday, with an increase on Wednesday and into Thursday in the 20’+ range. Similar sized swell is expected by the weekend. Bottom line is that there doesn’t look to be an opportunity in the near future for solid swell and ridable conditions.
Mavs Tuesday will see the surf drop, along with better weather but strong NW winds. Conditions are cleaner Wednesday, but the dropping trend continues. By late Thursday and into Friday, there is the potential for NW surf up into the 20’ face range, but it looks more like a paddle deal (rather than a big tow session). Conditions should be nice by then, with a similar sized NW swell possible by the end of the weekend.
Todos Tuesday will see a slow fade in surf, but NW winds should continue to hamper conditions (not enough juice for XXL stuff anyway). Look for a fading trend in surf through most of the week with better conditions. There is a possibility of modest NW swells for later Friday and then again for the beginning of next week, but not of XXL caliber.